Sportsbook Opens A Market On Whether Its Own Customers Will Ever Break Even
Oddsworth prices the chance of a customer finishing the year ahead at 250 to 1, a figure its traders call generous and its customers call familiar.
HOBOKEN, N.J. Sportsbook operator Oddsworth on Monday opened betting on a question its customers have been asking for years: whether any of them will finish a calendar year ahead. The company has priced the answer at 250 to 1.
The market, listed in the app under Your Own Future, settles on December 31 and accepts stakes from any customer with a verified account. Readers of our sportsbook coverage will recognise the format. It is a futures market, except that the future is the customer’s.
The prices
| Outcome | Odds | Implied chance |
|---|---|---|
| Customer finishes the year ahead | 250 to 1 | 0.4% |
| Customer finishes level | 40 to 1 | 2.4% |
| Customer finishes behind | 1 to 500 | 99.8% |
| Customer reads the terms first | Off the board |
Added together, the three prices imply a 102.6 percent chance that something will happen, which a spokesperson called “about the usual amount.” The extra 2.6 percent belongs to the house and is not available to bet on.
We have always known these numbers. It seemed unfair that we were the only ones allowed to bet on them.
A change to the price
The market opened at 200 to 1 and was lengthened to 250 to 1 within the hour, after what the company described as “a surprising amount of interest from people who should know better.” Oddsworth said the move reflected new information, which it declined to share, on the grounds that it is the information.
Customers who back themselves to finish ahead are offered three ways to improve the price:
- A boosted 275 to 1, for stakes placed before breakfast
- Insurance against winning, which refunds the stake as a bonus
- Cash out, available at any moment, at a figure the app will choose
It is the first market we have offered where the price is the whole story.
To place the bet, the company’s help pages ask customers to:
- Open the app and select Your Own Future
- Confirm they have read the terms, without opening them
- Choose a stake, which the app will suggest is larger than they had in mind
- Wait until December 31, or until the money runs out, whichever comes first
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Regulators said they were reviewing the market. A filing seen by this newspaper shows Oddsworth has already applied to list a second one, on whether the regulators will finish.
